I was reading about ports this week and Gujarat Pipavav came up
they run a port on the Gujarat coast
containers, export cars, fertiliser, limestone, LPG
APM Terminals, part of the Maersk group, owns 44%
they don’t own the port. they run it on a 30-year deal with the Gujarat Maritime Board that ends in September 2028
I read their May and August 2026 calls
cars are up a lot
gas cargo is down because of the war in the Middle East
₹166 now
fell to ₹146 in early April
back above its 40-week average since mid-August
going sideways now. it turned back near ₹176
The good and the bad
Car volumes up 53% in April–June
more Indian cars shipped abroad, same berths and land
they say they can go to 300,000–350,000 cars a year without new spending
Profit ₹559 Cr in 12 months, was ₹390 Cr
take out every one-off they named and operating profit still grew about 15%
₹510 Cr cash from operations, profit ₹515 Cr
that’s the year to March 2026
dividend for that year was ₹10.40 a share
₹31.6 Cr of April–June sales were export scrips
old government export incentives that got paid now
₹49.6 Cr more came in January–March. only one small scrip is left
Liquids down 47%, LPG down 63%
most of their LPG came from the Gulf. the war cut it off
a Maersk container service to Jebel Ali has also been stopped since March
Concession ends September 2028
no terms or royalty known yet
on 26 August the Maritime Board asked for a business plan within 90 days (report)
why the numbers moved
April–June against a year ago
sales ₹250 Cr to ₹332 Cr
profit ₹104 Cr to ₹148 Cr
OPM 59% to 64%
last 12 months against the 12 before
sales ₹992 Cr to ₹1,240 Cr
profit ₹390 Cr to ₹559 Cr
1. more cars over the same berths
car volumes up 39% in January–March, up 53% in April–June
depreciation flat at ₹31 Cr, no new berths needed
“We are already doing about 250,000 cars. We can easily handle 300,000 to 350,000 cars today.”
— Gujarat Pipavav management, call of 29 May 2026
for this year they expect 260,000–270,000 cars
take out every one-off and April–June operating profit was about ₹167 Cr
a year ago it was ₹147 Cr
this depends on car exports. if those slow, this slows
2. a price rise in January and a weaker rupee
money per container went from ₹9,000–9,500 in May to ₹9,500–10,000 in August
“First, the favorable exchange rate benefited this quarter. Second, the tariff increase that we took in January has started to materialize based on the contractual arrangements with customers from this quarter.”
— Santosh Breed, CFO, call of 13 August 2026
containers are 60–65% of sales, billed in dollars
the price rise stays. the rupee part can go either way
3. export scrips
₹49.6 Cr in January–March, ₹31.6 Cr in April–June
they’re booked inside sales, so they lift OPM too
“Excluding this, underlying revenue performance was higher for the quarter by 20%.”
— Girish Aggarwal, managing director, call of 13 August 2026
without them, April–June OPM was 61%. one-off
the 70% and 64% bars both have scrips in them
4. one-time extras in April–June
other ports were jammed, so some ships came here
“Apart from that, we also had some one-offs on provision reversals, as well as opportunities from ad hoc transshipment volumes.”
— Santosh Breed, CFO, call of 13 August 2026
about 5% of sales, they said
they didn’t call it lasting
₹332 Cr in April–June, about ₹300 Cr without scrips
a year ago it was ₹250 Cr
5. the war in the Middle East
liquids down 47%, LPG down 63% in April–June
and the Shaheen container service to Jebel Ali is gone for the year
“That represents a substantial volume of 70,000-80,000 TEUs that we will lose this year because of Shaheen.”
— Girish Aggarwal, managing director, call of 13 August 2026
for the year they expect liquids at 1.3–1.4 million tons, down 15–20%
LPG has started coming from the US instead
this one hurt. Shaheen comes back only if the Strait of Hormuz opens
6. the new liquid jetty, not here yet
₹720 Cr in all, ₹250 Cr spent by March
adds 3 million tons of space
no customer has signed yet
they expect to fill it over 3–5 years
I’m not counting it yet
What did management
say
cars and margin came in at or above what they said
containers and the jetty date fell short
April–June containers, in May
“A growth of 5% to 7%.”
— Gujarat Pipavav management, call of 29 May 2026
it came in at 3%. in August
“Container volumes have essentially been affected by a difficult quarter because of the Middle East conflict.”
— Girish Aggarwal, managing director, call of 13 August 2026
cars, they said 45–50% more. it came in at 53%
the margin
“We believe operating profit margins of about 59% to 61% is a reasonable assumption on an ongoing basis.”
— Gujarat Pipavav management, call of 29 May 2026
April–June without the scrips was 61%. kept
the new liquid jetty date moved again
May
“The jetty will be ready potentially in December this year, and next year is when we should think about volume growth.”
— Gujarat Pipavav management, call of 29 May 2026
August
“The current completion is scheduled for March 2027, so there will be no impact in this financial year.”
— Girish Aggarwal, managing director, call of 13 August 2026
not sure why it slipped
on the concession, the same line both times
“There are no red flags, but there is also nothing further to report compared with where we were 3 months ago.”
— Girish Aggarwal, managing director, call of 13 August 2026
P/E 14.8, usual level about 19.7
what I’m watching from here
July–September operating profit, with scrips and one-offs taken out
a year ago it was ₹178 Cr
if it’s above that with cars still up, I’ll believe the car growth
if it’s below, I’ll be worried April–June was mostly one-offs
then the Maritime Board plan, and the royalty after 2028
The 90-second video
that’s it from me, see you tomorrow
— Roshan, Sector Alpha
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Prices as of 16 October 2026 · results to Apr–Jun 2026 · business analysis from 10 October 2026
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